Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tatran Prešov W vs Spartak Trnava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Tatran Prešov W
Tatran Prešov W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
10/19/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 11Umelá tráva Prešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tatran Prešov W53%
×Draw19%
Spartak Trnava W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov W
2.46
Spartak Trnava W
1.75

Tatran Prešov W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov W
2.37
Spartak Trnava W
1.55

allows per match

Tatran Prešov W
1.95
Spartak Trnava W
2.54

finishing

Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par
Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov W ↓

Spartak Trnava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov W or draw
73%
Tatran Prešov W or Spartak Trnava W
81%
Draw or Spartak Trnava W
47%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+
33%
Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals
91%
Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals
70%
Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals
44%
Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
52%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)
66%
Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov W at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

Spartak Trnava W away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov W attack 2.37 + Spartak Trnava W defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.46

Spartak Trnava W attack 1.55 + Tatran Prešov W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tatran Prešov W scores more
53%
level
19%
Spartak Trnava W scores more
27%

Tatran Prešov W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tatran Prešov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Tatran Prešov W 3–2 Spartak Trnava W

Tatran Prešov W beat Spartak Trnava W 3-2 in I Liga - Women on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Prešov in Prešov.