Tatran Prešov W 1–4 Ružomberok W: Result & Stats

Tatran Prešov W

FT

1 – 4

Ružomberok W

11/11/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 12Umelá tráva Prešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tatran Prešov W45%

×Draw20%

Ružomberok W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran Prešov WExpected goals in this matchRužomberok W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.90

Tatran Prešov W

2.20

Ružomberok W

1.90

Tatran Prešov W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 65 away

2.37

creates per match

1.85

1.95

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Tatran Prešov W

2.37

Ružomberok W

1.85

allows per match

Tatran Prešov W

1.95

Ružomberok W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par

Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov W ↓

Ružomberok W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov W or draw

66%

Tatran Prešov W or Ružomberok W

80%

Draw or Ružomberok W

55%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+

26%

Ružomberok W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals

89%

Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals

64%

Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals

37%

Ružomberok W 1+ goals

85%

Ružomberok W 2+ goals

56%

Ružomberok W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)

57%

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov W at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov W attack 2.37 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.20

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Tatran Prešov W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tatran Prešov W scores more

45%

level

20%

Ružomberok W scores more

34%

Tatran Prešov W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tatran Prešov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff