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Ružomberok W vs Tatran Prešov W — I Liga - Women 2020

Ružomberok W
Ružomberok W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tatran Prešov W
Tatran Prešov W
2/21/2026I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ružomberok W54%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ružomberok W
2.34
Tatran Prešov W
1.61

Ružomberok W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ružomberok W
2.48
Tatran Prešov W
1.79

allows per match

Ružomberok W
1.43
Tatran Prešov W
2.21

finishing

Ružomberok W+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok W ↓

Tatran Prešov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ružomberok W or draw
74%
Ružomberok W or Tatran Prešov W
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov W
46%

Winning margin

Ružomberok W wins by 2+
33%
Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ružomberok W 1+ goals
90%
Ružomberok W 2+ goals
67%
Ružomberok W 3+ goals
41%
Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals
80%
Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals
48%
Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)
67%
Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Tatran Prešov W away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok W attack 2.48 + Tatran Prešov W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.34

Tatran Prešov W attack 1.79 + Ružomberok W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ružomberok W scores more
54%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov W scores more
26%

Ružomberok W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ružomberok W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ružomberok W vs Tatran Prešov W

Tatran Prešov W beat Ružomberok W 2-0 in I Liga - Women on February 21, 2026.