Tatran Prešov 5–0 Sobrance: Result & Stats

Tatran Prešov

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sobrance

6/8/2022

3. liga - East · East - 30FC Pivovar Šariš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tatran Prešov85%

×Draw10%

Sobrance5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran PrešovExpected goals in this matchSobrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.59

Tatran Prešov

3.04

Sobrance

0.59

Tatran Prešov creates 415% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

3.55

creates per match

0.73

0.45

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Tatran Prešov

3.55

Sobrance

0.73

allows per match

Tatran Prešov

0.45

Sobrance

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Sobrance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw

95%

Tatran Prešov or Sobrance

90%

Draw or Sobrance

15%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

67%

Sobrance wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

95%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

80%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

57%

Sobrance 1+ goals

45%

Sobrance 2+ goals

12%

Sobrance 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

95%

Sobrance (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 3.04

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more

85%

level

10%

Sobrance scores more

5%

Tatran Prešov at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff