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Tatran Prešov vs Malženice — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Malženice
Malženice
3/2/20242. liga2. liga · Round 18Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tatran Prešov63%
×Draw21%
Malženice15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.92
Malženice
0.82

Tatran Prešov creates 134% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.95
Malženice
1.14

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.50
Malženice
1.88

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
85%
Tatran Prešov or Malženice
79%
Draw or Malženice
37%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
38%
Malženice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
85%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
57%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
30%
Malženice 1+ goals
56%
Malženice 2+ goals
20%
Malženice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
80%
Malženice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.50 · 44 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.95 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Malženice attack 1.14 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
63%
level
21%
Malženice scores more
15%

Tatran Prešov at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Prešov vs Malženice

Tatran Prešov beat Malženice 5-0 in 2. liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza in Vranov nad Topľou.