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Tatran Prešov vs Dolný Kubín — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
D. Pavuk 54'
J. Dolny 40' (pen)
Arthur 14'
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tatran Prešov58%
×Draw21%
Dolný Kubín21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
2.09
Dolný Kubín
1.20

Tatran Prešov creates 74% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
2.78
Dolný Kubín
1.40

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
1.00
Dolný Kubín
1.40

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
79%
Tatran Prešov or Dolný Kubín
79%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
42%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
35%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
88%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
62%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
34%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
70%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
34%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
73%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
58%
level
21%
Dolný Kubín scores more
21%

Tatran Prešov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Arthur
40'
J. DolnyPenalty
54'
D. Pavuk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Prešov vs Dolný Kubín

Tatran Prešov beat Dolný Kubín 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 27, 2024.

Goals: Arthur (14'), J. Dolny (40' pen), D. Pavuk (54').