Tatran Krásno 3–1 Žarnovica: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

3 – 1

Žarnovica

9/12/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 7Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno68%

×Draw17%

Žarnovica16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchŽarnovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.23

Tatran Krásno

2.68

Žarnovica

1.23

Tatran Krásno creates 118% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

2.23

creates per match

1.04

1.41

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

2.23

Žarnovica

1.04

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.41

Žarnovica

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Žarnovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

84%

Tatran Krásno or Žarnovica

83%

Draw or Žarnovica

32%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

46%

Žarnovica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

93%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

74%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

49%

Žarnovica 1+ goals

71%

Žarnovica 2+ goals

35%

Žarnovica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

81%

Žarnovica (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.68

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

68%

level

17%

Žarnovica scores more

16%

Tatran Krásno at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff