Tatran Krásno 0–3 Veľké Ludince: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Veľké Ludince

8/11/2024

3. liga - West · West - 2Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno41%

×Draw26%

Veľké Ludince33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchVeľké Ludince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Tatran Krásno

1.44

Veľké Ludince

1.25

Tatran Krásno creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

0.81

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Veľké Ludince

1.00

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Veľké Ludince

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Veľké Ludince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

67%

Tatran Krásno or Veľké Ludince

74%

Draw or Veľké Ludince

59%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

20%

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

76%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

42%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

18%

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

71%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

36%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

56%

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

41%

level

26%

Veľké Ludince scores more

33%

Tatran Krásno at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff