Tatran Krásno 0–1 Spartak Myjava: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Myjava

4/20/2025

3. liga - West · West - 26Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno24%

×Draw26%

Spartak Myjava49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.48

Tatran Krásno

0.95

Spartak Myjava

1.48

Spartak Myjava creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

0.81

creates per match

1.47

1.50

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Spartak Myjava

1.47

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Spartak Myjava

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Spartak Myjava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

51%

Tatran Krásno or Spartak Myjava

74%

Draw or Spartak Myjava

76%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

8%

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

61%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

25%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

7%

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Myjava 2+ goals

43%

Spartak Myjava 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

33%

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

24%

level

26%

Spartak Myjava scores more

49%

Spartak Myjava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff