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Tatran Krásno vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
3/12/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 18Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno34%
×Draw26%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.26
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.41

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
60%
Tatran Krásno or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
74%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
66%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
14%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
72%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
36%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
13%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
76%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
41%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
45%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
34%
level
26%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
40%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Tatran Krásno beat Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2-0 in 3. liga - West on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.