Tatran Krásno 1–7 Novohrad Lučenec: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Novohrad Lučenec

4/24/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 20Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno53%

×Draw21%

Novohrad Lučenec26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.44

Tatran Krásno

2.13

Novohrad Lučenec

1.44

Tatran Krásno creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

2.23

creates per match

1.47

1.41

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

2.23

Novohrad Lučenec

1.47

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.41

Novohrad Lučenec

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

74%

Tatran Krásno or Novohrad Lučenec

79%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

47%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

32%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

88%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

63%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

35%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

76%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

42%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

67%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.13

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

53%

level

21%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

26%

Tatran Krásno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff