Tatran Krásno 0–4 Nové Zámky: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Nové Zámky

10/27/2024

3. liga - West · West - 13Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno46%

×Draw25%

Nové Zámky28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchNové Zámky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.15

Tatran Krásno

1.55

Nové Zámky

1.15

Tatran Krásno creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 70 away

0.81

creates per match

0.80

1.50

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Nové Zámky

0.80

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Nové Zámky

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Nové Zámky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

72%

Tatran Krásno or Nové Zámky

75%

Draw or Nové Zámky

54%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

24%

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

79%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

46%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

20%

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

68%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

32%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

62%

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

46%

level

25%

Nové Zámky scores more

28%

Tatran Krásno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff