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Tatran Krásno vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
4 – 3
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
10/11/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 11Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno66%
×Draw18%
Liptovský Hrádok17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
2.54
Liptovský Hrádok
1.21

Tatran Krásno creates 110% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
2.23
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.41
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
83%
Tatran Krásno or Liptovský Hrádok
82%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
34%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
44%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
92%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
72%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
46%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
70%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
34%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
80%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.54

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
66%
level
18%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
17%

Tatran Krásno at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Liptovský Hrádok

Tatran Krásno beat Liptovský Hrádok 4-3 in 3. liga - Center on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.