Tatran Krásno 0–2 Jednota Bánová: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jednota Bánová

4/27/2025

3. liga - West · West - 28Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno40%

×Draw26%

Jednota Bánová33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchJednota Bánová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.22

Tatran Krásno

1.37

Jednota Bánová

1.22

Tatran Krásno creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

0.81

creates per match

0.93

1.50

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Jednota Bánová

0.93

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Jednota Bánová

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Jednota Bánová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

67%

Tatran Krásno or Jednota Bánová

74%

Draw or Jednota Bánová

60%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

19%

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

75%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

40%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

16%

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals

70%

Jednota Bánová 2+ goals

34%

Jednota Bánová 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

55%

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jednota Bánová attack 0.93 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

40%

level

26%

Jednota Bánová scores more

33%

Tatran Krásno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff