Tatran Krásno 1–1 Inter Bratislava: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Bratislava

5/14/2025

3. liga - West · West - 31Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno31%

×Draw26%

Inter Bratislava44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchInter Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.49

Tatran Krásno

1.20

Inter Bratislava

1.49

Inter Bratislava creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

0.81

creates per match

1.48

1.50

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Inter Bratislava

1.48

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Inter Bratislava

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Inter Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

56%

Tatran Krásno or Inter Bratislava

74%

Draw or Inter Bratislava

69%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

13%

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

70%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

34%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

12%

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals

77%

Inter Bratislava 2+ goals

44%

Inter Bratislava 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

41%

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Inter Bratislava attack 1.48 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

31%

level

26%

Inter Bratislava scores more

44%

Inter Bratislava at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff