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Tatran Krásno vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
10/6/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 10Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno33%
×Draw26%
Fomat Martin41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.23
Fomat Martin
1.39

Fomat Martin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
59%
Tatran Krásno or Fomat Martin
74%
Draw or Fomat Martin
67%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
14%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
71%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
35%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
13%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
75%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
40%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
45%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
33%
level
26%
Fomat Martin scores more
41%

Fomat Martin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Fomat Martin

Tatran Krásno beat Fomat Martin 1-0 in 3. liga - West on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.