Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tatran Krásno vs Beluša — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beluša
Beluša
11/17/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno25%
×Draw25%
Beluša49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.03
Beluša
1.55

Beluša creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Beluša
1.60

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Beluša
1.25

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Beluša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
51%
Tatran Krásno or Beluša
75%
Draw or Beluša
75%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
9%
Beluša wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
64%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
28%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
9%
Beluša 1+ goals
79%
Beluša 2+ goals
46%
Beluša 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
34%
Beluša (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Beluša attack 1.60 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
25%
level
25%
Beluša scores more
49%

Beluša at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Beluša

Beluša beat Tatran Krásno 2-0 in 3. liga - West on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.