Tatran Bohunice 1–1 Vysočina Jihlava II

Tatran Bohunice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava II

8/20/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tatran Bohunice40%

×Draw24%

Vysočina Jihlava II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran BohuniceExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.48

Tatran Bohunice

1.56

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

2.00

0.95

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice

1.79

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.00

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice

0.95

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw

64%

Tatran Bohunice or Vysočina Jihlava II

76%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

60%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

20%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

79%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

46%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

21%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

77%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

43%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

52%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.79 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Tatran Bohunice defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more

40%

level

24%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

36%

Tatran Bohunice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff