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Tatabánya vs Teskánd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Teskánd
Teskánd
7/31/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 1Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tatabánya64%
×Draw19%
Teskánd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
2.42
Teskánd
1.21

Tatabánya creates 100% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
1.89
Teskánd
1.47

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.95
Teskánd
2.95

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Teskánd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
82%
Tatabánya or Teskánd
81%
Draw or Teskánd
36%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
42%
Teskánd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
91%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
69%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
43%
Teskánd 1+ goals
70%
Teskánd 2+ goals
34%
Teskánd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
78%
Teskánd (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 57 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 1.89 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.42

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Tatabánya defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tatabánya scores more
64%
level
19%
Teskánd scores more
18%

Tatabánya at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatabánya vs Teskánd

Tatabánya beat Teskánd 5-2 in NB III - Southwest on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabánya.