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Tatabánya vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
5 – 0
Andráshida
Andráshida
9/4/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 6Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tatabánya84%
×Draw11%
Andráshida6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
3.26
Andráshida
0.79

Tatabánya creates 313% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
1.89
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.95
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
94%
Tatabánya or Andráshida
89%
Draw or Andráshida
16%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
66%
Andráshida wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
96%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
83%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
61%
Andráshida 1+ goals
55%
Andráshida 2+ goals
19%
Andráshida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
93%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 57 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 1.89 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.26

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Tatabánya defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tatabánya scores more
84%
level
11%
Andráshida scores more
6%

Tatabánya at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatabánya vs Andráshida

Tatabánya beat Andráshida 5-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabánya.