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Tasmania Berlin vs Strausberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
CANC
12:00
Strausberg
Strausberg
4/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tasmania Berlin66%
×Draw19%
Strausberg14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
2.19
Strausberg
0.91

Tasmania Berlin creates 141% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
Strausberg
0.50

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
Strausberg
2.25

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Strausberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
86%
Tasmania Berlin or Strausberg
81%
Draw or Strausberg
34%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
43%
Strausberg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
89%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
64%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
37%
Strausberg 1+ goals
60%
Strausberg 2+ goals
23%
Strausberg 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
82%
Strausberg (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
66%
level
19%
Strausberg scores more
14%

Tasmania Berlin at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Berlin vs Strausberg — Match Preview

Tasmania Berlin face Strausberg on April 25, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tasmania Berlin host Strausberg at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.