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Tasmania Berlin vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
FT
3 – 1
Stern
Stern
9/20/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tasmania Berlin52%
×Draw22%
Stern26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.94
Stern
1.31

Tasmania Berlin creates 48% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
Stern
1.76

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
74%
Tasmania Berlin or Stern
78%
Draw or Stern
48%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
30%
Stern wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
86%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
58%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
30%
Stern 1+ goals
73%
Stern 2+ goals
38%
Stern 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
67%
Stern (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stern attack 1.29 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
52%
level
22%
Stern scores more
26%

Tasmania Berlin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Tasmania Berlin 3–1 Stern

Tasmania Berlin beat Stern 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark in Berlin.