Tasmania Berlin 10–2 Rostocker FC: Result & Stats

Tasmania Berlin

FT

10 – 2

HT: 6 – 0

Rostocker FC

5/11/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 27Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tasmania Berlin65%

×Draw17%

Rostocker FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchRostocker FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.36

Tasmania Berlin

2.69

Rostocker FC

1.36

Tasmania Berlin creates 98% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 67 away

2.12

creates per match

1.40

1.32

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

2.12

Rostocker FC

1.40

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.32

Rostocker FC

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Rostocker FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

82%

Tasmania Berlin or Rostocker FC

83%

Draw or Rostocker FC

35%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

44%

Rostocker FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

93%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

74%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

49%

Rostocker FC 1+ goals

74%

Rostocker FC 2+ goals

39%

Rostocker FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

79%

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.69

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

65%

level

17%

Rostocker FC scores more

18%

Tasmania Berlin at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff