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Tasmania Berlin vs Hertha Zehlendorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
5/17/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tasmania Berlin37%
×Draw22%
Hertha Zehlendorf41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.72
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.33

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.31

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
59%
Tasmania Berlin or Hertha Zehlendorf
78%
Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf
63%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
19%
Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
82%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
51%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
25%
Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
84%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
54%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
47%
Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
37%
level
22%
Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
41%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tasmania Berlin vs Hertha Zehlendorf

Tasmania Berlin and Hertha Zehlendorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark in Berlin.