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Tasmania Berlin vs Hallescher FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
FT
0 – 4
Hallescher FC
Hallescher FC
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tasmania Berlin8%
×Draw12%
Hallescher FC80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.02
Hallescher FC
3.37

Hallescher FC creates 230% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.59
Hallescher FC
3.67

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
3.06
Hallescher FC
0.44

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Hallescher FC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Hallescher FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
20%
Tasmania Berlin or Hallescher FC
88%
Draw or Hallescher FC
92%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
3%
Hallescher FC wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
64%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
27%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
8%
Hallescher FC 1+ goals
96%
Hallescher FC 2+ goals
84%
Hallescher FC 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
9%
Hallescher FC (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 1.59, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Hallescher FC away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.59 + Hallescher FC defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hallescher FC attack 3.67 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
8%
level
12%
Hallescher FC scores more
80%

Hallescher FC at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hallescher FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Tasmania
Hallescher
T. Franke
Manager: T. Franke
Robert Schroder
Manager: Robert Schroder

Friendlies Clubs: Tasmania Berlin 0–4 Hallescher FC

Hallescher FC beat Tasmania Berlin 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.