Tasmania Berlin 1–0 BFC Dynamo: Result & Stats

Tasmania Berlin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BFC Dynamo

P. Magalhaes 3'

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tasmania Berlin12%

×Draw14%

BFC Dynamo73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchBFC Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

3.10

Tasmania Berlin

1.23

BFC Dynamo

3.10

BFC Dynamo creates 152% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.59

creates per match

3.14

3.06

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.59

BFC Dynamo

3.14

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

3.06

BFC Dynamo

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

BFC Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

27%

Tasmania Berlin or BFC Dynamo

86%

Draw or BFC Dynamo

88%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

5%

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

71%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

35%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

13%

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals

95%

BFC Dynamo 2+ goals

81%

BFC Dynamo 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

14%

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 1.59, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

BFC Dynamo away — creates 3.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.59 + BFC Dynamo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

BFC Dynamo attack 3.14 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

12%

level

14%

BFC Dynamo scores more

73%

BFC Dynamo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

P. Magalhaes

Tasmania

BFC

Manager: T. Franke

Manager: Dennis Kutrieb