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Tarzan vs ViPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Tarzan
Tarzan
FT
1 – 3
ViPa
ViPa
3/25/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundLippumäen kuplahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tarzan12%
×Draw13%
ViPa75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarzan
1.40
ViPa
3.54

ViPa creates 153% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tarzan
0.80
ViPa
2.67

allows per match

Tarzan
4.40
ViPa
2.00

finishing

Tarzan+0.00on par
ViPa+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarzan ↓

ViPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Tarzan or draw
25%
Tarzan or ViPa
87%
Draw or ViPa
88%

Winning margin

Tarzan wins by 2+
5%
ViPa wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Tarzan 1+ goals
75%
Tarzan 2+ goals
41%
Tarzan 3+ goals
17%
ViPa 1+ goals
97%
ViPa 2+ goals
86%
ViPa 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Tarzan (draw refunded)
13%
ViPa (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarzan at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

ViPa away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarzan attack 0.80 + ViPa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

ViPa attack 2.67 + Tarzan defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Tarzan scores more
12%
level
13%
ViPa scores more
75%

ViPa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "ViPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarzan vs ViPa

ViPa beat Tarzan 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Lippumäen kuplahalli in Kuopio.