Tarzan 0–9 Kypärämäki Rangers: Result & Stats

Tarzan

0 – 9

Kypärämäki Rangers

3/26/2023

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundVäre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tarzan1%

×Draw4%

Kypärämäki Rangers95%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarzanExpected goals in this matchKypärämäki Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.57

4.79

Tarzan

0.57

Kypärämäki Rangers

4.79

Kypärämäki Rangers creates 740% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

5.17

4.40

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Tarzan

0.80

Kypärämäki Rangers

5.17

allows per match

Tarzan

4.40

Kypärämäki Rangers

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarzan+0.00on par

Kypärämäki Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarzan ↓

Kypärämäki Rangers →

0–01%

0–13%

0–27%

0–311%

0–413%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–47%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (13%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

72%28%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Tarzan or draw

Tarzan or Kypärämäki Rangers

96%

Draw or Kypärämäki Rangers

99%

Winning margin

Tarzan wins by 2+

Kypärämäki Rangers wins by 2+

86%

Team goals

Tarzan 1+ goals

43%

Tarzan 2+ goals

11%

Tarzan 3+ goals

Kypärämäki Rangers 1+ goals

99%

Kypärämäki Rangers 2+ goals

94%

Kypärämäki Rangers 3+ goals

82%

Draw no bet

Tarzan (draw refunded)

Kypärämäki Rangers (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tarzan at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Kypärämäki Rangers away — creates 5.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tarzan attack 0.80 + Kypärämäki Rangers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Kypärämäki Rangers attack 5.17 + Tarzan defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 95%?"

Tarzan scores more

level

Kypärämäki Rangers scores more

95%

Kypärämäki Rangers at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Kypärämäki Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff