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Tarxien Rainbows vs Zebbug Rangers — FA Trophy 2020

Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
12/13/2023FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tarxien Rainbows32%
×Draw20%
Zebbug Rangers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Zebbug Rangers
2.21

Zebbug Rangers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tarxien Rainbows
1.50
Zebbug Rangers
2.43

allows per match

Tarxien Rainbows
2.00
Zebbug Rangers
2.14

finishing

Tarxien Rainbows+0.00on par
Zebbug Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarxien Rainbows ↓

Zebbug Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tarxien Rainbows or draw
53%
Tarxien Rainbows or Zebbug Rangers
80%
Draw or Zebbug Rangers
68%

Winning margin

Tarxien Rainbows wins by 2+
16%
Zebbug Rangers wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tarxien Rainbows 1+ goals
84%
Tarxien Rainbows 2+ goals
54%
Tarxien Rainbows 3+ goals
27%
Zebbug Rangers 1+ goals
89%
Zebbug Rangers 2+ goals
65%
Zebbug Rangers 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Tarxien Rainbows (draw refunded)
41%
Zebbug Rangers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarxien Rainbows at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Zebbug Rangers away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarxien Rainbows attack 1.50 + Zebbug Rangers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Zebbug Rangers attack 2.43 + Tarxien Rainbows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tarxien Rainbows scores more
32%
level
20%
Zebbug Rangers scores more
47%

Zebbug Rangers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zebbug Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarxien Rainbows vs Zebbug Rangers

Zebbug Rangers beat Tarxien Rainbows 2-1 in FA Trophy on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.