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Tarup-Paarup vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
FT
0 – 1
Skive
Skive
8/11/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 2Home Tarup Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tarup-Paarup26%
×Draw24%
Skive50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarup-Paarup
1.13
Skive
1.68

Skive creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup
0.88
Skive
1.35

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup
2.00
Skive
1.38

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw
50%
Tarup-Paarup or Skive
76%
Draw or Skive
74%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
10%
Skive wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
68%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
31%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
11%
Skive 1+ goals
81%
Skive 2+ goals
50%
Skive 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
34%
Skive (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Skive away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.88 + Skive defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Skive attack 1.35 + Tarup-Paarup defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more
26%
level
24%
Skive scores more
50%

Skive at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Tarup-Paarup 0–1 Skive

Skive beat Tarup-Paarup 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Home Tarup Park in Odense.