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Tarup-Paarup vs Ringkøbing — League #126 2026

Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ringkøbing
Ringkøbing
10/18/2025League #126League #126 · Group 3 - 11Home Tarup Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tarup-Paarup49%
×Draw23%
Ringkøbing28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarup-Paarup
1.77
Ringkøbing
1.27

Tarup-Paarup creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup
2.22
Ringkøbing
1.21

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup
1.33
Ringkøbing
1.32

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par
Ringkøbing+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Ringkøbing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw
72%
Tarup-Paarup or Ringkøbing
77%
Draw or Ringkøbing
51%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
27%
Ringkøbing wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
83%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
53%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
26%
Ringkøbing 1+ goals
72%
Ringkøbing 2+ goals
36%
Ringkøbing 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
64%
Ringkøbing (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Ringkøbing away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 2.22 + Ringkøbing defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ringkøbing attack 1.21 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more
49%
level
23%
Ringkøbing scores more
28%

Tarup-Paarup at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tarup-Paarup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarup-Paarup vs Ringkøbing

Ringkøbing beat Tarup-Paarup 1-0 in League #126 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Home Tarup Park in Odense.