Tarup-Paarup 0–1 Brabrand: Result & Stats

Tarup-Paarup

FT

0 – 1

Brabrand

9/22/2018

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Home Tarup Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tarup-Paarup26%

×Draw26%

Brabrand48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tarup-PaarupExpected goals in this matchBrabrand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.50

Tarup-Paarup

1.02

Brabrand

1.50

Brabrand creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 77 away

0.50

creates per match

1.01

2.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup

0.50

Brabrand

1.01

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup

2.00

Brabrand

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Brabrand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw

52%

Tarup-Paarup or Brabrand

74%

Draw or Brabrand

74%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+

9%

Brabrand wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals

64%

Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals

27%

Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals

8%

Brabrand 1+ goals

78%

Brabrand 2+ goals

44%

Brabrand 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)

35%

Brabrand (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.50 + Brabrand defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.02

Brabrand attack 1.01 + Tarup-Paarup defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more

26%

level

26%

Brabrand scores more

48%

Brabrand at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brabrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff