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Tartu Welco vs Rakvere Tarvas — Esiliiga A 2026

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
9/19/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 29Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tartu Welco64%
×Draw18%
Rakvere Tarvas18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Welco
2.54
Rakvere Tarvas
1.28

Tartu Welco creates 98% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tartu Welco
1.85
Rakvere Tarvas
0.83

allows per match

Tartu Welco
1.74
Rakvere Tarvas
3.22

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw
82%
Tartu Welco or Rakvere Tarvas
82%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
36%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+
43%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals
92%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
72%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
46%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
72%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
37%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
78%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.74 · 73 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 1.85 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.54

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + Tartu Welco defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tartu Welco scores more
64%
level
18%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
18%

Tartu Welco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tartu Welco vs Rakvere Tarvas

Tartu Welco beat Rakvere Tarvas 4-0 in Esiliiga A on September 19, 2019.

The match was played at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion (Tartu).