Tartu Welco 0–0 Flora III: Result & Stats | Cup

Tartu Welco

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flora III

8/12/2020

Cup · 32nd FinalsAnnelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tartu Welco47%

×Draw17%

Flora III35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu WelcoExpected goals in this matchFlora III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.30

2.88

Tartu Welco

3.30

Flora III

2.88

Tartu Welco creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

5.60

creates per match

3.75

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tartu Welco

5.60

Flora III

3.75

allows per match

Tartu Welco

2.00

Flora III

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Flora III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

Flora III →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

72%28%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw

65%

Tartu Welco or Flora III

83%

Draw or Flora III

53%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+

30%

Flora III wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals

96%

Tartu Welco 2+ goals

83%

Tartu Welco 3+ goals

62%

Flora III 1+ goals

94%

Flora III 2+ goals

78%

Flora III 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)

57%

Flora III (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 5.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Flora III away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 5.60 + Flora III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Flora III attack 3.75 + Tartu Welco defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tartu Welco scores more

47%

level

17%

Flora III scores more

35%

Tartu Welco at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff