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Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
FT
4 – 2
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tartu Kalev53%
×Draw18%
Tallinna Kalev II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Kalev
2.83
Tallinna Kalev II
2.08

Tartu Kalev creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tartu Kalev
2.67
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50

allows per match

Tartu Kalev
2.67
Tallinna Kalev II
3.00

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw
71%
Tartu Kalev or Tallinna Kalev II
82%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev II
47%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
34%
Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
94%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
77%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
53%
Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
87%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
61%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
65%
Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.67 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.50 + Tartu Kalev defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more
53%
level
18%
Tallinna Kalev II scores more
29%

Tartu Kalev at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II

Tartu Kalev beat Tallinna Kalev II 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.