Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tartu Kalev vs Puhkus Mehhikos — Cup 2020

Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
FT
0 – 0
Puhkus Mehhikos
Puhkus Mehhikos
6/22/2022CupCup · 64th FinalsÜlenurme staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tartu Kalev90%
×Draw6%
Puhkus Mehhikos4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Kalev
4.58
Puhkus Mehhikos
0.96

Tartu Kalev creates 377% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tartu Kalev
5.50
Puhkus Mehhikos
0.67

allows per match

Tartu Kalev
1.25
Puhkus Mehhikos
3.67

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par
Puhkus Mehhikos+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Puhkus Mehhikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw
96%
Tartu Kalev or Puhkus Mehhikos
94%
Draw or Puhkus Mehhikos
10%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
78%
Puhkus Mehhikos wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
99%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
93%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
80%
Puhkus Mehhikos 1+ goals
62%
Puhkus Mehhikos 2+ goals
25%
Puhkus Mehhikos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
96%
Puhkus Mehhikos (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 5.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Puhkus Mehhikos away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 5.50 + Puhkus Mehhikos defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 4.58

Puhkus Mehhikos attack 0.67 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more
90%
level
6%
Puhkus Mehhikos scores more
4%

Tartu Kalev at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tartu Kalev 0–0 Puhkus Mehhikos

Tartu Kalev and Puhkus Mehhikos drew 0-0 in Cup on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Ülenurme staadion in Ülenurme.