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Tartu Kalev vs Paide II — Esiliiga B 2026

Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paide II
Paide II
4/13/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 6Ulenurme stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tartu Kalev53%
×Draw21%
Paide II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Kalev
2.11
Paide II
1.41

Tartu Kalev creates 50% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tartu Kalev
2.17
Paide II
1.32

allows per match

Tartu Kalev
1.50
Paide II
2.05

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw
74%
Tartu Kalev or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
47%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
32%
Paide II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
88%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
62%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
35%
Paide II 1+ goals
76%
Paide II 2+ goals
41%
Paide II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
68%
Paide II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.11

Paide II attack 1.32 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more
53%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
26%

Tartu Kalev at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Tartu Kalev 5–0 Paide II

Tartu Kalev beat Paide II 5-0 in Esiliiga B on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Ulenurme stadium in Ulenurme.