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Tartu Kalev vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Esiliiga B 2026

Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
FT
10 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
10/26/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 34Ulenurme stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tartu Kalev68%
×Draw16%
Läänemaa Haapsalu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Kalev
2.91
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.39

Tartu Kalev creates 109% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tartu Kalev
2.17
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.27

allows per match

Tartu Kalev
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.65

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw
84%
Tartu Kalev or Läänemaa Haapsalu
84%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
32%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
48%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
94%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
78%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
54%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
75%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
40%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
81%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.91

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more
68%
level
16%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
16%

Tartu Kalev at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tartu Kalev vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Tartu Kalev beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 10-0 in Esiliiga B on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Ulenurme stadium in Ulenurme.