Tartu Kalev 1–4 Kuressaare II: Result & Stats

Tartu Kalev

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Kuressaare II

8/5/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 21Ülenurme staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tartu Kalev55%

×Draw20%

Kuressaare II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu KalevExpected goals in this matchKuressaare II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.57

Tartu Kalev

2.37

Kuressaare II

1.57

Tartu Kalev creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

2.17

creates per match

1.64

1.50

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Tartu Kalev

2.17

Kuressaare II

1.64

allows per match

Tartu Kalev

1.50

Kuressaare II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Kuressaare II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw

75%

Tartu Kalev or Kuressaare II

80%

Draw or Kuressaare II

45%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

34%

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

91%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

68%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

42%

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

79%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

46%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

69%

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more

55%

level

20%

Kuressaare II scores more

25%

Tartu Kalev at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff