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Kuressaare II vs Tartu Kalev — Esiliiga B 2026

Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
8/17/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 24Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kuressaare II29%
×Draw21%
Tartu Kalev50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare II
1.65
Tartu Kalev
2.21

Tartu Kalev creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kuressaare II
1.31
Tartu Kalev
2.02

allows per match

Kuressaare II
2.39
Tartu Kalev
1.98

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par
Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Tartu Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw
50%
Kuressaare II or Tartu Kalev
79%
Draw or Tartu Kalev
71%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+
14%
Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals
81%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
49%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
23%
Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
89%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
65%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
37%
Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Tartu Kalev away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tartu Kalev attack 2.02 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kuressaare II scores more
29%
level
21%
Tartu Kalev scores more
50%

Tartu Kalev at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuressaare II vs Tartu Kalev

Tartu Kalev beat Kuressaare II 4-0 in Esiliiga B on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Kuressaare Linnastaadion in Kuressaare.