Tartu Kalev 0–0 Flora III: Result & Stats | Cup

Tartu Kalev

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flora III

9/21/2022

Cup · Round of 32Ülenurme staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tartu Kalev52%

×Draw17%

Flora III30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu KalevExpected goals in this matchFlora III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

2.50

Tartu Kalev

3.25

Flora III

2.50

Tartu Kalev creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

5.50

creates per match

3.75

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tartu Kalev

5.50

Flora III

3.75

allows per match

Tartu Kalev

1.25

Flora III

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Flora III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Flora III →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw

70%

Tartu Kalev or Flora III

83%

Draw or Flora III

48%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

35%

Flora III wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

96%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

83%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

61%

Flora III 1+ goals

92%

Flora III 2+ goals

71%

Flora III 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

63%

Flora III (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 5.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Flora III away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 5.50 + Flora III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Flora III attack 3.75 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more

52%

level

17%

Flora III scores more

30%

Tartu Kalev at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff