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Tartu Kalev vs Elva — Cup 2020

Tartu Kalev
Tartu Kalev
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Elva
Elvaadvanced
6/11/2025CupCup · Round of 128Ulenurme stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tartu Kalev64%
×Draw15%
Elva21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Kalev
4.04
Elva
2.41

Tartu Kalev creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tartu Kalev
5.50
Elva
3.57

allows per match

Tartu Kalev
1.25
Elva
2.57

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw
79%
Tartu Kalev or Elva
85%
Draw or Elva
36%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+
46%
Elva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals
98%
Tartu Kalev 2+ goals
90%
Tartu Kalev 3+ goals
74%
Elva 1+ goals
91%
Elva 2+ goals
69%
Elva 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)
75%
Elva (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 5.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Elva away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 5.50 + Elva defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 4.04

Elva attack 3.57 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more
64%
level
15%
Elva scores more
21%

Tartu Kalev at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tartu Kalev vs Elva

Elva beat Tartu Kalev 2-1 in Cup on June 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ulenurme stadium in Ulenurme.