Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

11/5/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundTarsus Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tarsus İdman Yurdu77%

×Draw14%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tarsus İdman YurduExpected goals in this matchYeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.00

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

3.00

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

1.00

Tarsus İdman Yurdu creates 200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

2.67

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

0.67

allows per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

1.33

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarsus İdman Yurdu+0.00on par

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarsus İdman Yurdu ↓

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tarsus İdman Yurdu or draw

90%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

86%

Draw or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

23%

Winning margin

Tarsus İdman Yurdu wins by 2+

57%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1+ goals

95%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2+ goals

79%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3+ goals

56%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1+ goals

63%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2+ goals

26%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tarsus İdman Yurdu (draw refunded)

89%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu attack 2.67 + Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu attack 0.67 + Tarsus İdman Yurdu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Tarsus İdman Yurdu scores more

77%

level

14%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu scores more

10%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Tarsus İdman Yurdu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff