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Tarsus İdman Yurdu vs Fenerbahçe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Tarsus İdman Yurdu
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
10/30/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundMersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tarsus İdman Yurdu39%
×Draw23%
Fenerbahçe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.69
Fenerbahçe
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu
2.67
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.33
Fenerbahçe
0.71

finishing

Tarsus İdman Yurdu+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarsus İdman Yurdu ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tarsus İdman Yurdu or draw
62%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu or Fenerbahçe
77%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
61%

Winning margin

Tarsus İdman Yurdu wins by 2+
20%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1+ goals
82%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2+ goals
50%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3+ goals
24%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
81%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
50%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tarsus İdman Yurdu (draw refunded)
51%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu attack 2.67 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Tarsus İdman Yurdu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tarsus İdman Yurdu scores more
39%
level
23%
Fenerbahçe scores more
38%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tarsus İdman Yurdu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarsus İdman Yurdu vs Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Mersin Stadyumu in Mersin.