Tarsus İdman Yurdu 4–0 Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

9/25/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundTarsus Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tarsus İdman Yurdu54%

×Draw21%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tarsus İdman YurduExpected goals in this matchDarıca Gençlerbirliği

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.42

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

2.15

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.42

Tarsus İdman Yurdu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

2.67

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.50

allows per match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu

1.33

Darıca Gençlerbirliği

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarsus İdman Yurdu+0.00on par

Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarsus İdman Yurdu ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Tarsus İdman Yurdu or draw

75%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu or Darıca Gençlerbirliği

79%

Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği

46%

Winning margin

Tarsus İdman Yurdu wins by 2+

32%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1+ goals

88%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2+ goals

63%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3+ goals

36%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals

76%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals

41%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tarsus İdman Yurdu (draw refunded)

68%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarsus İdman Yurdu attack 2.67 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Tarsus İdman Yurdu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tarsus İdman Yurdu scores more

54%

level

21%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more

25%

Tarsus İdman Yurdu at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tarsus İdman Yurdu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff