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Taroona vs Hobart City — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Taroona
Taroona
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Hobart City
Hobart City
5/31/2025Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 9Kelvedon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Taroona61%
×Draw16%
Hobart City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taroona
3.22
Hobart City
1.96

Taroona creates 64% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Taroona
3.96
Hobart City
2.00

allows per match

Taroona
1.92
Hobart City
2.48

finishing

Taroona+0.00on par
Hobart City+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taroona ↓

Hobart City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Taroona or draw
78%
Taroona or Hobart City
84%
Draw or Hobart City
39%

Winning margin

Taroona wins by 2+
42%
Hobart City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Taroona 1+ goals
96%
Taroona 2+ goals
82%
Taroona 3+ goals
61%
Hobart City 1+ goals
86%
Hobart City 2+ goals
58%
Hobart City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Taroona (draw refunded)
73%
Hobart City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taroona at home — creates 3.96, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Hobart City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taroona attack 3.96 + Hobart City defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 3.22

Hobart City attack 2.00 + Taroona defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Taroona scores more
61%
level
16%
Hobart City scores more
22%

Taroona at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Taroona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taroona vs Hobart City

Hobart City beat Taroona 4-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Kelvedon Park in Taroona.