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Tarazona vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tarazona72%
×Draw19%
Villanueva CF9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
2.04
Villanueva CF
0.55

Tarazona creates 271% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tarazona
2.31
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Tarazona
0.38
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
91%
Tarazona or Villanueva CF
81%
Draw or Villanueva CF
28%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
47%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
87%
Tarazona 2+ goals
60%
Tarazona 3+ goals
33%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
42%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
11%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
89%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 2.31 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Tarazona defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tarazona scores more
72%
level
19%
Villanueva CF scores more
9%

Tarazona at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Tarazona 2–0 Villanueva CF

Tarazona beat Villanueva CF 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.