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Tarazona vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teruel
Teruel
11/12/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tarazona38%
×Draw34%
Teruel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
0.95
Teruel
0.78

Tarazona creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tarazona
1.00
Teruel
0.95

allows per match

Tarazona
0.61
Teruel
0.89

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
71%
Tarazona or Teruel
66%
Draw or Teruel
62%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
14%
Teruel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
61%
Tarazona 2+ goals
25%
Tarazona 3+ goals
7%
Teruel 1+ goals
54%
Teruel 2+ goals
18%
Teruel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
57%
Teruel (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.00 + Teruel defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Teruel attack 0.95 + Tarazona defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tarazona scores more
38%
level
34%
Teruel scores more
29%

Tarazona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarazona vs Teruel

Tarazona and Teruel drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.