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Tarazona vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
10/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tarazona46%
×Draw29%
Sestao River25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.23
Sestao River
0.83

Tarazona creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tarazona
1.00
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Tarazona
0.61
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
75%
Tarazona or Sestao River
71%
Draw or Sestao River
54%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
20%
Sestao River wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
71%
Tarazona 2+ goals
35%
Tarazona 3+ goals
13%
Sestao River 1+ goals
56%
Sestao River 2+ goals
20%
Sestao River 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
65%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.00 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Tarazona defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tarazona scores more
46%
level
29%
Sestao River scores more
25%

Tarazona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tarazona 3–0 Sestao River

Tarazona beat Sestao River 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza in Cuarte de Huerva.