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Tarazona vs Sariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
CANC
00:00
Sariñena
Sariñena
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 38Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tarazona61%
×Draw23%
Sariñena16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.73
Sariñena
0.75

Tarazona creates 131% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tarazona
2.31
Sariñena
1.12

allows per match

Tarazona
0.38
Sariñena
1.15

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Sariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Sariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
84%
Tarazona or Sariñena
77%
Draw or Sariñena
39%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
35%
Sariñena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
82%
Tarazona 2+ goals
52%
Tarazona 3+ goals
25%
Sariñena 1+ goals
53%
Sariñena 2+ goals
17%
Sariñena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
79%
Sariñena (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Sariñena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 2.31 + Sariñena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sariñena attack 1.12 + Tarazona defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tarazona scores more
61%
level
23%
Sariñena scores more
16%

Tarazona at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tarazona host Sariñena

April 26, 2020: Tarazona take on Sariñena in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tarazona host Sariñena at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.